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Projected population change, 2025–2050: Mexican states ranked

Measure: Projected population change, 2025–2050 (%, derived). All 32 estados with data in Population projections to 2050 by state, Mexico, ranked from highest to lowest. Reference period: 2025–2050.

Licence
Fuente/Source: CONAPO (Consejo Nacional de Población), data file 05_Indicadores_demograficos_proyecciones.csv, consulted 2026-11-03. Open data, free to reuse with attribution under the Government of Mexico's Términos de Libre Uso MX (see CONAPO Datos Abiertos).
Data last updated
2026-11-09
Download full table CSVSource: CONAPO (Consejo Nacional de Población) (opens in a new tab)

National value: 10.2 (Mexico).

Sonora: 12.4Baja California: 23.8Chihuahua: 15.6Coahuila de Zaragoza: 20.3Tamaulipas: 8.3Nuevo León: 31.5Quintana Roo: 32.7Campeche: 0.2Tabasco: -2.5Chiapas: 23.9Colima: 5.3Nayarit: 16.3Baja California Sur: 36.8Sinaloa: 6Yucatán: 20.1Veracruz de Ignacio de la Llave: -10.2Jalisco: 12.9Michoacán de Ocampo: 14.3Guerrero: -8.6Oaxaca: 10.3México: 2.6Puebla: 18.3Morelos: 3.7Querétaro: 31.2Hidalgo: 15.7Guanajuato: 11.3San Luis Potosí: 11.2Zacatecas: 11.3Aguascalientes: 19.8Durango: 7.7Tlaxcala: 19.2Ciudad de México: -12.7
  • Lowest: -12.7 to 3.7 %
  • Group 2: 3.7 to 11.2 %
  • Group 3: 11.2 to 15.7 %
  • Group 4: 15.7 to 20.3 %
  • Highest: 20.3 to 36.8 %
The map is a visual summary; every value is in the table below, which is the keyboard and screen-reader path. Groups are quintiles of the values shown (a derived grouping). Boundaries: Natural Earth (public domain), simplified.

Rank is derived by Quadranac: 1 = highest value; ties share a rank. The ranked value is itself derived; see the source table for the method. Values are as published in the source table.

Note: CONAPO's 2023 projections; future values rest on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration.

1Baja California Sur36.8
2Quintana Roo32.7
3Nuevo León31.5
4Querétaro31.2
5Chiapas23.9
6Baja California23.8
7Coahuila de Zaragoza20.3
8Yucatán20.1
9Aguascalientes19.8
10Tlaxcala19.2
11Puebla18.3
12Nayarit16.3
13Hidalgo15.7
14Chihuahua15.6
15Michoacán de Ocampo14.3
16Jalisco12.9
17Sonora12.4
18Guanajuato11.3
18Zacatecas11.3
20San Luis Potosí11.2
21Oaxaca10.3
22Tamaulipas8.3
23Durango7.7
24Sinaloa6
25Colima5.3
26Morelos3.7
27México2.6
28Campeche0.2
29Tabasco-2.5
30Guerrero-8.6
31Veracruz de Ignacio de la Llave-10.2
32Ciudad de México-12.7

Source: CONAPO (Consejo Nacional de Población), Proyecciones de la Población de México y de las Entidades Federativas 2020–2070: Indicadores demográficos (file 05_Indicadores_demograficos_proyecciones.csv), mid-year population (POB_MIT_AÑO) and population aged 65 and over (MUJ_65_MAS + HOM_65_MAS) for 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2050. Reference period: 2025.

Cite this ranking

Mexican estados ranked by projected population change, 2025–2050 (%, derived) (2025–2050). Data: CONAPO (Consejo Nacional de Población), Proyecciones de la Población de México y de las Entidades Federativas 2020–2070, Indicadores demográficos (05_Indicadores_demograficos_proyecciones.csv), mid-year population POB_MIT_AÑO for 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2050; rank derived by Quadranac. Data last updated 2026-11-09. https://quadranac.com/rankings/mx-estados-by-projected-population-change-2025-to-2050/

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